Federal Reserve of New York's Consumer Expectations Dataset

Author: Noah Gomez
Created: 1 July 2023
Published: 28 December 2023
Updated: 30 May 2024

Status: Active

Active - Continually Updated

Dataset Metadata

Product Concerned: Consumer Financial Products
File Type: Created in Microsoft Excel, Hosted Privately
Availability Status: Public
Mother Catelog: Public Datasets
Mother Catelog Description: A collection of datasets acquired, processed, refined, and analyzed by Thick Credit.

Date Updated

30 May 2024

Description

This data table hosts commercial data of over 80 consumer expectation metrics from approximately 1,300 households since 2013. This is a public dataset available to the public and used to identify, rank, and tailor the best offers to consumers in ThickCredit's product and content.

Sample (Image)

Similar Datasets

This dataset is similar to but not the same as:

the credit builder card dataset,
the rent reporting services dataset,
the credit builder loan dataset,
the secured credit card dataset,
the savings-secured loan dataset,
the credit union call report data,
the cardholder agreement dataset,
the household debt dataset,
the consumer credit dataset, and
the consumer finances dataset.

Data Fields in Table

Q1. Do you think you (and any family living with you) are financially better or worse off these days than you were 12 months ago?
Q2. And looking ahead, do you think you (and any family living with you) will be financially better or worse off 12 months from now than you are these days?
Q3. For example, what do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will move to a different primary residence (that is, the place where you usually live)?
Q4new. What do you think is the percent chance that 12 months from now the unemployment rate in the U.S. will be higher than it is now?
Q5new. What do you think is the percent chance that 12 months from now the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher than it is now?
Q6new. What do you think is the percent chance that 12 months from now, on average, stock prices in the U.S. stock market will be higher than they are now?
Q8v2. Over the next 12 months, do you think that there will be inflation or deflation?
Q8v2part2. What do you expect the rate of [inflation (if Q8v2=inflation)/deflation (if Q8v2=deflation)] to be over the next 12 months? Please give your best guess.
Q9. Now we would like you to think about the different things that may happen to inflation over the next 12 months. We realize that this question may take a little more effort. In your view, what would you say is the percent chance that, over the next 12 months?
Q9bv2. Now we would like you to think about inflation further into the future. Over the 12-month period between [Month, Year - 24 months from survey date] and [Month, Year - 36 months from survey date], do you think that there will be inflation or deflation?
Q9bv2part2. What do you expect the rate of [inflation (if Q9bv2=inflation)/deflation (if Q9bv2=deflation)] to be over that period? Please give your best guess.
Q9c. And in your view, what would you say is the percent chance that, over the [Month, Year – 24 months from survey date] and [Month, Year - 36 months from survey date]?
Q10. What is your current employment situation?
Q11. Altogether, how many jobs do you have (including the job from which you were temporarily laid off, but excluding volunteer or other unpaid work)? / Altogether, how many jobs do you have, excluding volunteer and other unpaid work?
Q12new. In your [current/main] job, do you work for someone else or are you self-employed?
Q13new. What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your [“main” if Q11>1, “current” if Q11=1] job during the next 12 months?
Q14new. What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your [“main” if Q11>1, “current” if Q11=1] job voluntarily during the next 12 months?
Q15. You just mentioned that you are currently not working but would like to work. Are you currently looking for a job?
Q16. How long have you been unemployed?
Q17new. What do you think is the percent chance that within the coming 12 months, you will find a job that you will accept, considering the pay and type of work?
Q18new. And looking at the more immediate future, what do you think is the percent chance that within the coming 3 months, you will find a job that you will accept, considering the pay and type of work?
Q19. How long have you been out of work?
Q20new. What do you think is the percent chance that within the coming 12 months, you will start looking for a job?
Q21new. And looking at the more immediate future, what do you think is the percent chance that within the coming 3 months, you will start looking for a job?
Q22new. Suppose you were to lose your [“main” if Q11>1] job this month. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months, you will find a job that you will accept, considering the pay and type of work?
Q24. Suppose again that, 12 months from now, you are working in the exact same [“main” if Q11>1] job at the same place you currently work, and working the exact same number of hours. In your view, what would you say is the percent chance that 12 months from now?
Q25v2. Next we would like to ask you about your overall household income going forward. By household we mean everyone who usually lives in your primary residence (including yourself), excluding roommates and renters. Over the next 12 months, what do you expect will happen to the total income of all members of your household (including you), from all sources before taxes and deductions?
Q25v2part2. By about what percent do you expect your total household income to [increase/decrease as in Q25v2]? Please give your best guess.
Q26v2. Now think about your total household spending, including groceries, clothing, personal care, housing (such as rent, mortgage payments, utilities, maintenance, home improvements), medical expenses (including health insurance), transportation, recreation and entertainment, education, and any large items (such as home appliances, electronics, furniture, or car payments). Over the next 12 months, what do you expect will happen to the total spending of all members of your household (including you)?
Q26v2part2. By about what percent do you expect your total household spending to [increase/decrease as in Q26v2]? Please give your best guess.
Q27v2. Suppose that 12 months from now, your total household income is the same as now. What do you expect to have happened to the total amount of taxes you will have to pay, including federal, state and local income, property and sales taxes?
Q27v2part2. By about what percent do you expect your total taxes to have [increased/decreased as in Q27v2]? Please give your best guess.
Q28. Compared to 12 months ago, do you think it is generally harder or easier these days for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, and mortgages)?
Q29. And looking ahead, do you think that 12 months from now it will generally be harder or easier for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, and mortgages) than it is these days?
Q30new. What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 3 months, you will NOT be able to make one of your debt payments (that is, the minimum required payments on credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages, or any other debt you may have)?
Q31v2. Next we would like you to think about home prices nationwide. Over the next 12 months, what do you expect will happen to the average home price nationwide?
Q31v2part2. By about what percent do you expect the average home price to [increase/decrease as in Q31v2]? Please give your best guess.
QNUM1. In a sale, a shop is selling all items at half price. Before the sale, a sofa costs $300. How much will it cost in the sale?
QNUM2. Let's say you have $200 in a savings account. The account earns ten per cent interest per year. Interest accrues at each anniversary of the account. If you never withdraw money or interest payments, how much will you have in the account at the end of two years?
QNUM3. In the BIG BUCKS LOTTERY, the chances of winning a $10.00 prize are 1%. What is your best guess about how many people would win a $10.00 prize if 1,000 people each buy a single ticket from BIG BUCKS?
QNUM5. If the chance of getting a disease is 10 percent, how many people out of 1,000 would be expected to get the disease?
QNUM6. The chance of getting a viral infection is 0.0005. Out of 10,000 people, about how many of them are expected to get infected?
QNUM8. Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1% per year and inflation was 2% per year. After one year, how much would you be able to buy with the money in this account?
Q32. Next, we would like to ask you some questions about you and your household. What is your current age?
Q33. What is your gender?
Q34. Do you consider yourself of Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin?
Q35. Please choose one or more races that you consider yourself to be: White (1), Black or African American (2), American Indian or Alaska Native (3), Asian (4), Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander (5), Other (please specify) (6).
Q36. What is the highest level of school you have completed, or the highest degree you have received?
Q37. How long have you been working at your [“main” if Q11>1, “current” if Q11=1] job?
Q38. Are you currently married or living as a partner with someone?
Question HH2. What is your spouse/partner’s current employment situation?
Q39. What is the ZIP code of your primary residence (the place where you usually live)?
Q40. In which state is your primary residence?
Q41. How many years have you lived at your primary residence?
Q42. How many years in total have you lived in the State in which you currently live?
Q43. If Q38=yes: Do you or your spouse/partner own or rent your current primary residence? If Q38=no: Do you own or rent your current primary residence?
Q43a. In whose name is your primary residence [“owned” if Q43=Own/”rented” if Q43=Rent]?
Q44. If Q38=yes: Do you or your spouse/partner own any other home(s)? If Q38=no: Do you own any other home(s)?
Q45new. Please tell us how many of the following people usually live in your primary residence, other than yourself (including those who are temporarily away): Spouse/partner (1), Children ages 25 or older (2), Children ages 18 to 24 (3), Children ages 6 to 17 (4), Children ages 5 or younger (5), Your or your spouse/partner’s parents (6), Other relatives (like siblings or cousins) (7), Non-relatives (like roommates or renters) (8), None of the above, I live alone (9).
Q45b. Next we would like to ask about your health. Would you say your health is excellent, very good, good, fair, or poor?
Q46. On the scale below, which of the following best describes how financial decisions are made in your household?
QRA1. On a scale from 1 to 7, how would you rate your willingness to take risks regarding financial matters?
QRA2. More generally, how would you rate your willingness to take risks in daily activities?
Q47. Which category represents the total combined pre-tax income of all members of your household (including you) during the past 12 months? Please include money from all jobs, net income from business, farm or rent, pensions, interest on savings or bonds, dividends, social security income, unemployment benefits, Food Stamps, workers compensation or disability benefits, child support, alimony, scholarships, fellowships, grants, inheritances and gifts, and any other money income received by members of your household who are 15 years of age or older.
Question DSAME Added June 2014. DSAME. [if Q11>0 and Q12new = 1] Earlier you said that you are currently employed. Were you working in the same [main if Q11>1] job when you submitted your last survey in [Month Year]?
Question dHH2 Added June 2014. dHH2. [If Q38=1] What is your spouse/partner’s current employment situation?
Q48. Could you tell us how interesting or uninteresting you found the questions in this survey?
Q49. Do you have any other comments about the survey or the survey experience? Please type these in the box below.

Data Quality & Validation

Relevance

Data is chosen and collected with consumer borrowers in mind. Data fields are limited to metrics that inform decision-making and risk-mitigation, as well as contact information. Most of the raw data must be analyzed by Thick Credit to drive insights, except for simple fields such as name and purchases.

Collection

All data is continually collected from the Federal Reserve of New York by human agents. The process can involve manually extracting data from PDFs and other nontransferable files.

Accuracy

Accuracy is reinforced by dual-authentication and continual updating of evolutionary figures, such as interest rates that may evolve over time.

Completeness

The data is collected from an Excel file in aggregate form and does not completion. However, the field names are not available directly in the data file and must be completed using the survey in PDF form for computation and analysis.

Recency

The data is updated continually to include new data as it’s made available from the New Yor branch of the Federal Reserve System.

Cleaning

In some cases, cleaning includes the conversion of PDFs or other non-tabular files into spreadsheets for analysis, notably for field names that are codified in the data sheet.

Privacy

The dataset is hosted natively offline and on hard drives inaccessible via internet channels.

Validation

Outliers do not impact raw data, only analysis. We use a conservative framework that eliminates outliers with a material impact on analytical metrics helpful to consumers. There are no aggregation weaknesses in the dataset as of publishing. We adjust all calculations to present the most accurate reality to consumers.

About the Author

Noah Gomez (founder of Thick Credit) is a transatlantic professional and entrepreneur with 3+ years experience in consumer finance education. He also has 5+ years of experience in corporate finance, including debt financing, M&A, listing preparation, US GAAP and IFRS.

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Thick Credit is not a credit repair organization, a credit conseling agency, or a debtor education providor. It does not act on your behalf to communicate with credit reporting agencies or provide pre-bankruptcy credit counseling and pre-discharge debtor education for bankruptcy.